# 2018 Annual Meeting of the Society for Mathematical Biology & the Japanese Society for Mathematical Biology

8-12 July 2018
Australia/Sydney timezone

## Corrections to predictions of the basic reproduction number

11 Jul 2018, 10:30
30m
New Law School/--106 (University of Sydney)

### New Law School/--106

#### University of Sydney

100
Oral Presentation Minisymposium: Reproduction Numbers

### Speaker

Dr Matthew Betti (York University)

### Description

The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, derived from ordinary differential equation models is a powerful predictor of the severity of an infection and can help inform prevention and mitigation strategies. Many of the parameters used in ODE models are mean values of time-dependent distributions. Here, we show how we can incorporate properties of these distributions to refine estimates of $R_0$ for a series of ubiquitous models used in epidemiology. These corrections are applied to the $R_0$ estimate as opposed to the model itself, allowing simple models to be used, and better predictions to be made post-hoc as more data becomes available. Moreover, we address some difficulties in trying to extend these corrections to more complex models.

### Primary authors

Dr Matthew Betti (York University) Prof. Jane Heffernan (York University)

### Presentation Materials

There are no materials yet.