Corrections to predictions of the basic reproduction number

11 Jul 2018, 10:30
New Law School/--106 (University of Sydney)

New Law School/--106

University of Sydney

Oral Presentation Minisymposium: Reproduction Numbers Reproduction numbers


Dr Matthew Betti (York University)


The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, derived from ordinary differential equation models is a powerful predictor of the severity of an infection and can help inform prevention and mitigation strategies. Many of the parameters used in ODE models are mean values of time-dependent distributions. Here, we show how we can incorporate properties of these distributions to refine estimates of $R_0$ for a series of ubiquitous models used in epidemiology. These corrections are applied to the $R_0$ estimate as opposed to the model itself, allowing simple models to be used, and better predictions to be made post-hoc as more data becomes available. Moreover, we address some difficulties in trying to extend these corrections to more complex models.

Primary authors

Dr Matthew Betti (York University) Prof. Jane Heffernan (York University)

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