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SUMMARY:Corrections to predictions of the basic reproduction number
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180711T003000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180711T010000Z
DTSTAMP;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20241104T172902Z
UID:indico-contribution-125@conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: Matthew Betti (York University)\nThe basic reproduct
ion number\, $R_0$\, derived from ordinary differential equation models is
a powerful predictor of the severity of an infection and can help inform
prevention and mitigation strategies. Many of the parameters used in ODE m
odels are mean values of time-dependent distributions. Here\, we show how
we can incorporate properties of these distributions to refine estimates o
f $R_0$ for a series of ubiquitous models used in epidemiology. These corr
ections are applied to the $R_0$ estimate as opposed to the model itself\,
allowing simple models to be used\, and better predictions to be made pos
t-hoc as more data becomes available. Moreover\, we address some difficult
ies in trying to extend these corrections to more complex models.\n\nhttps
://conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/125/
LOCATION:University of Sydney New Law School/--106
URL:https://conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/125/
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