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SUMMARY:Investigating the dynamics of coupled epidemiological transmission
models with application to Group A Streptococcus and Scabies
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180710T021000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180710T023000Z
DTSTAMP;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20241107T231008Z
UID:indico-contribution-209@conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: Michael Lydeamore (The University of Melbourne)\nInf
ections with Group A Streptoccocus (GAS) are highly prevalent in remote co
mmunities in\nthe Northern Territory\, Australia. One of the primary drive
rs of GAS infection is scabies\, a small mite which causes a break in the
skin layer\, potentially allowing GAS to take hold. This biological connec
tion is reaffirmed by the observation that mass treatment for scabies in t
hese remote communities sees a reduction in the prevalence of GAS infectio
n\, despite GAS not being directly targeted. In the most extreme case\, it
has been hypothesised that the eradication of scabies in remote communiti
es may lead to an eradication of GAS related infection.\n\nWe start by pro
posing a model of GAS transmission that assumes that scabies dynamics are
at equilibrium. We assume that GAS follows a Susceptible – Infectious
– Susceptible (SIS) structure\, but individuals who are infected with sc
abies experience an increased force of infection compared to those who are
not infected with scabies. In consequence\, we are able to calculate the
required prevalence of scabies required to ensure that GAS is eradicated\,
as a function of $R_0$ and the coupling strength between the two infectio
ns.\n\nIn order to more accurately model the impact of mass treatment for
scabies\, we extend this model to include the dynamics of scabies infectio
ns. We consider two different scabies models: one which includes the full
dynamics of the scabies mites\, and one which collapses these dynamics dow
n to a far simpler phenomenological model. We investigate the difference i
n the scabies rebound dynamics after mass treatment for these two models\,
and consider the impact of this difference on the dynamics of GAS. We sho
w that despite the two scabies models having different mean field dynamics
\, parameter uncertainty and the small population size mean that this diff
erence is severely muted when considering the post-scabies treatment on GA
S. Finally\, we compute a value for the increased force of infection exper
ienced by those infected with scabies\, below which eradication for GAS wo
uld be achieved if scabies were eradicated.\n\nhttps://conferences.maths.u
nsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/209/
LOCATION:University of Sydney New Law School/--020
URL:https://conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/209/
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