Speaker
Description
In this study, the maximal extent of future NPP uncertainties are explored by employing the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) approach and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model based on future climate change assessments, which are provided by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario at the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC). We find that the future NPP will increase due to climate change and CO2; however, there is a difference in the extent of the variation resulting from the 10 GCMs and the CNOP-P approach. Future NPPs are estimated from 3.89 Gt C (MRI-CGCM3 model) to 4.51 Gt C (bcc-csm1-1 model) using the LPJ model driven by the outputs of 10 GCMs. The estimates of NPP with two types of CNOP-P-type climate change scenarios are 4.74 Gt C and 5.31 Gt C and are larger than other estimates of NPP. The above results imply that the terrestrial ecosystem supplies possible conditions for future carbon sinks for all climate change scenarios, especially for the CNOP-P-type climate change scenarios, although the estimates remain uncertain. Stimulative photosynthesis due to high precipitation and restrained autotrophic respiration due to low temperatures may play important roles in the carbon sink due to the CNOP-P-type climate change and CO2 in all climate change scenarios. In addition, it is found that the combination of climate change and CO2 is also a key factor in the increase of NPP.
