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SUMMARY:Analysis and simulation of a mathematical model for rabies transmi
ssion in the Philippines
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180709T094500Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180709T100000Z
DTSTAMP;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200813T150748Z
UID:indico-contribution-228@conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: May Anne Mata (University of the Philippines Mindana
o)\nRabies is a fatal zoonotic disease and remains to be a priority health
concern in the Philippines. Dogs remain to be the principal carrier of ra
bies and despite the fatality of rabies\, it is a vaccine-preventable dise
ase. Currently\, the Philippine health officials have been conducting mass
dog vaccination campaigns with the goal of having a rabies-free Philippin
es by the year 2020. However\, statistical information about the disease p
oses a challenge and gives rise to doubts on whether the goal is achievabl
e. In line with this goal\, our aim for this study was to see whether elim
inating dog rabies in the country is possible. Here\, we developed a simpl
e mathematical model\, following the SEIR framework\, that describes the d
ynamics of rabies infection among dogs in the presence of mass vaccination
wherein some model parameters were calibrated from actual data sets. We u
sed the model to predict the long-term rabies incidence and to analyticall
y find an expression for the basic reproduction number in terms of vaccina
tion rate\, dog reproduction rate\, transmission rate\, and rate of vaccin
ation immunity loss. By numerical simulations\, we were able to determine
the parameter combinations or scenarios for zero rabies infection. We asse
ssed the validity and feasibility of these scenarios via data analysis. Ou
r preliminary findings pointed to mathematical modelling as an important t
ool to make realistic projections about the rabies disease.\n\nhttps://con
ferences.maths.unsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/228/
LOCATION:University of Sydney Holme Building/--The Refectory
URL:https://conferences.maths.unsw.edu.au/event/2/contributions/228/
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