A general stochastic model for evolutionary dynamics of communicable diseases

11 Jul 2018, 16:00
New Law School/--028 (University of Sydney)

New Law School/--028

University of Sydney

Oral Presentation Disease - infectious Multistrain models & resistance


Robert Cope (The University of Adelaide)


Infectious diseases undergo evolutionary changes as they spread and persist in populations. Different diseases present substantially different evolutionary dynamics, with both large-scale changes that create different strains, or more incremental shifts within a strain. In this talk, we demonstrate how a general stochastic epidemic model can be used to explain different types of evolutionary dynamics for infectious diseases. We describe how parameter choices correspond to evolutionary processes, and how simple building blocks within the model can be combined into more complex evolutionary behaviours. We compare model outputs to observed phylogenetic data from a variety of infectious diseases, including influenza, dengue, and Ebola.

Primary author

Robert Cope (The University of Adelaide)


Michael Meehan (Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine - James Cook University)

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