Understanding the impact of climate in seasonal influenza in Australia

10 Jul 2018, 11:30
New Law School/--020 (University of Sydney)

New Law School/--020

University of Sydney

Oral Presentation Disease - infectious Epidemiology


Mr Robert Cope (The University of Adelaide)


Influenza in humans exhibits a strong seasonal cycle in temperate climates, with a peak of varying intensity appearing each winter. However, the exact cause of this seasonal cycle remains poorly understood. We develop a climate-based SIR modelling framework to understand influenza seasonality, with the transmission rate as a function of climate data. By using a variety of climate-based functional forms of transmissibility from the literature, as well as some new forms, we select the best functional form for climate-dependent transmissibility via modern Machine Learning model selection methods. By analysing a unique dataset comprising ten years of GP-reported influenza-like-illness surveillance data from around Australia, we explore the relationship between influenza transmission and weather in different climate zones.

Primary author

Ms Jessica Penfold (The University of Adelaide)


Prof. Joshua Ross (The University of Adelaide) Dr Lewis Mitchell (The University of Adelaide) Mr Robert Cope (The University of Adelaide)

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