Mathematics of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics

9 Jul 2018, 11:00
New Law School/--101 (University of Sydney)

New Law School/--101

University of Sydney

Oral Presentation Minisymposium: Advances in Mathematics of Infectious Diseases Advances in mathematics of infectious diseases


Prof. Abba Gumel (Arizona State University)


Climate change is known to significantly affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria. In particular, the species involved in the transmission dynamics of malaria are affected by various abiotic conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and vapor pressure . A number of models, typically statistical (using data and statistical approaches to correlate some climate variables with malaria incidence) or mechanistic (accounting for the detailed dynamic nonlinear processes involved in disease transmission), have been employed to assess the likely impact of anthropogenic climate change on malaria transmission dynamics and control. These models have (generally) reached divergent conclusions, with some predicting a large expansion in the continental land area suitable for transmission and in the number of people at risk of malaria, while others predict only modest poleward (and altitudinal) shifts in the burden of disease, with little net effect, and the issue remains unresolved thus far. I will discuss some of our recent results on modelling the effect of climate variables (notably temperature) on the dynamics of malaria vector and disease.

Primary authors

Dr Steffen Eikenberry (Arizona State University) Kamaldeen Okuneye (Arizona State University) Prof. Abba Gumel (Arizona State University)

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