Conveners
Reproduction numbers: Part A
- Jane Heffernan (York University)
- John Glasser (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Reproduction numbers: Part B
- John Glasser (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
- Jane Heffernan (York University)
Description
The basic and effective reproduction numbers, denoted $R_0$ and $R_E$ respectively, have many applications in mathematical epidemiology. $R_0$ can be estimated empirically, given information about the distribution of generation times, and both can be derived from transmission models, most commonly via the next-generation approach. The population-immunity at which $R_E$ is one provides a target for vaccination programs world-wide, invasion numbers have been used to identify synergisms among pathogens causing sexually-transmitted diseases, and so on. Speakers will review and extend methods for overcoming limitations that they have encountered during their research.
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, derived from ordinary differential equation models is a powerful predictor of the severity of an infection and can help inform prevention and mitigation strategies. Many of the parameters used in ODE models are mean values of time-dependent distributions. Here, we show how we can incorporate properties of these distributions to refine estimates of $R_0$...
Background: Measles and rubella are rash illnesses that typically afflicted young children in the pre-vaccination era, but rubella usually is mild while measles may be severe. Because child deaths to which measles contributes often have other proximate causes, measles mortality is under-ascertained. Rubella during the first trimester invariably causes miscarriages, stillbirths and, among...
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has been persistent in the Middle East region since 2012. Abundant scientific evidence showed that dromedary camels are the primary host of the virus. Majority of human cases (i.e. 75% or 88%) are due to human-to-human transmission, while the others are due to camel-to-human transmission. Mathematical modelling of MERS-CoV camel-to-camel...
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a key quantity allowing public health officials to track how quickly an outbreak spreads through a population. In this talk, we compare several different estimators of $R_0$ assuming that only weekly data is available, with a focus on the early stages of an outbreak. We compare four estimators: a variant on maximum likelihood, incidence decay,...
The structure of an ecosystem and the interaction of the species within it can determine whether a pathogen can persist. We have described a model for interacting species that are hosts and non-hosts of a pathogen. The population densities of the ecosystem species can determine the value of the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$. We have defined concepts of ecological and...
