Conveners
Population heterogeneity and disease spread (Mathematical Epidemiology subgroup): Part A
- Meghan Burke (Kennesaw State University)
Population heterogeneity and disease spread (Mathematical Epidemiology subgroup): Part B - CANCELLED - combined with Part A
- David Earn ()
- Jonathan Dushoff (McMaster University)
Description
Epidemics typically reach smaller peak sizes, and are harder to eliminate, than would be predicted by simple models. Pervasive heterogeneity (including species diversity of hosts, genetic diversity within hosts and pathogens, spatial diversity and environmental diversity) can play a large role in these and other patterns of disease spread. This minisymposium will explore disease models that take various types of heterogeneity into account, both from a theoretical perspective, and from the perspective of fitting models for the purpose of making specific predictions.
Background: Japan experienced a nationwide rubella epidemic from 2012 to 2013, mostly in urban prefectures with large population sizes. The present study aimed to capture the spatiotemporal patterns of rubella using a parsimonious metapopulation epidemic model and examine the potential usefulness of spatial vaccination.
Methodology/Principal Findings: A metapopulation epidemic model in...
Unobserved heterogeneity was introduced in 1920 as a modifier of individual hazards. The concept was termed frailty in demography to describe variation in individual longevity [1], and has been incorporated in methods for survival analysis. As the frailest individuals are removed earlier from a heterogeneous group, mean hazards appear to decrease over time – cohort selection – leading to some...
The Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) parasite, which causes African Sleeping Sickness, is transmitted by the tsetse fly as a vector. It has several possible hosts, including wild and domestic animals, who are not as negatively impacted by the disease as the human host. It has long been assumed that because domestic animals can be hosts for the parasite, that keeping domestic animals near...
We propose and analyze a mathematical model of a vector-borne disease that includes vector feeding preference for carrier hosts and intrinsic incubation in hosts. Analysis of the model reveals the following novel results. We show theoretically and numerically that vector feeding preference for carrier hosts plays an important role for the existence of both the endemic equilibria and backward...
Generation intervals are an important and often-neglected component of the disease-transmission process. Mathematical models often assume exponentially distributed latent and infectious periods, but the interval between when a focal individual was infected and when they infect others (and the distribution of such intervals) can play a crucial role in parameterizing models and in making...
